Econ 101

Futures Correlation Matrix

Qualitative macro map across major futures symbols. Use it for regime context, cluster confirmation, and positioning alignment before execution.

HH = strong positiveH = positiveL = weak positive-L = weak inverse-H = strong inverseN = near zero
Symbol/ES/NQ/RTY/DX/6E/6C/6A/GC/HG/CL/ZC/ZN
/ES
/NQ
/RTY
/DX
/6E
/6C
/6A
/GC
/HG
/CL
/ZC
/ZN
Risk-On / Growth Cluster
/ES, /NQ, /RTY, /HG, /CL, /6C, /6A, /ZC
Risk-Off / Defensive Cluster
/DX, /GC, /ZN
China / Global Demand Cluster
/6A, /HG, /ZC, /ZS

Macro Lenses by Asset Bucket

Indices (/ES, /NQ, /RTY)

Drivers: Fed policy path, earnings revisions, AI/capex cycle, and credit conditions.

Context: Equities usually respond best into early cut cycles, especially cyclicals and small caps.

Currencies (/DX, /6E, /6J, /6B)

Drivers: Rate differentials and relative growth.

Context: /DX weakness typically supports commodities and non-US risk assets.

  • - /6C: commodity-risk currency tied to /CL, /HG, and broader cyclical rotations.
  • - /6A: China/global demand proxy with strongest internal linkage to /HG and /ZC.

Metals (/GC, /SI, /HG)

Drivers: Real yields, USD direction, global growth, and China demand.

Context: /HG tracks growth, /GC tracks macro hedge and tail-risk demand.

Energy (/CL, /NG)

Drivers: Global demand cycle, OPEC/supply, geopolitics, and seasonality.

Context: /CL often aligns with cyclicals and can decouple under supply shocks.

Agriculture (/ZC, /ZW, /ZS)

Drivers: Weather, acreage, yields, and export demand.

Context: Ags have independent seasonal regimes and can diverge from indices for extended periods.

Rates (/ZN, /ZB, /ZT)

Drivers: Growth and inflation expectations plus policy path.

Context: /ZN strength often coincides with growth scare or equity risk-off conditions.